Golden Globes Predictions 2005: Better Late Than Never

Wow, time just sort of gets away from me sometimes. It's already time for the Globes and I haven't even gotten my top ten list together yet! Don't worry, it's coming, I promise. As for this moment, I feel the need to chime in with my predictions for tonight's showing. Considering this already late hour, I will keep this as brief as possible. I am going to run down the list of categories as listed by the official Golden Globes website, please see the site for the full nominee listing.

Picture - Drama

• Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - I have not yet seen the film, but the buzz is just too huge to ignore.
• Should Win: It is a tough call, I have seem them all except for the sure winner. All of these are fine films. If pressed to make a choice between these, I would go with Good Night and Good Luck. It is an incredible film and really shows George Clooney's abilities as a director.

Picture - Musical or Comedy

• Will Win: Walk the Line will walk away with this one. It may have a rather pedestrian feel to the directing, but the performances are first rate. I must also note that I do not feel that this should be called a musical, it isn't.
• Should Win: The Squid and the Whale should take it, it is humorous and insightful into the dysfunctional family unit. Mild criticism is that it ends way to suddenly.

Actor in a Leading Role - Drama

• Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote, this was an exceptional performance and one that is not likely to be ignored. He disappeared into the role of the eccentric writer.
• Should Win: See above.

Actor in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

• Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line. He nailed it, to put it bluntly. I wasn't sure I envisioned him in this role but he did a fine job, and the critics have responded.
• Should Win: This is purely personal preference, but I would like to see Johnny Depp win for Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. He does such a fine job at capturing this bizarre character and taking it in a new direction.

Actress in a Leading Role - Drama

• Will Win: This is a tough call, but I think that Charlize Theron will take it home for North Country. I have not seen it, but have heard very good things about her performance.
• Should Win: Easy call for me, Zhang Ziyi for Memoirs of a Geisha. I found her to be absolutely captivating.

Actress in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

• Will Win: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line, this trophy is hers to lose. Her turn as June Carter was phenomenal, probably the best of her career.
• Should Win: See above.
• Side Note: How int he world did Sarah Jessica Parker get nominated for The Family Stone? The movie was not that good, and her performance was not that memorable.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Will Win: George Clooney for Syriana. I still may not have made heads or tales on the complexities of this film, but Clooney gives an excellent performance, one that is sure to get noticed.
• Should Win: I wouldn't mind either Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man or Matt Dillon for Crash. Both of those performances were first rate.
• Side Note: Will Ferrell? Sure, the performance was fun, but far from award worthy. What about Mickey Rourke or Michael Caine?

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Will Win: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain, again, the buzz is too much to ignore.
• Should Win: Scarlett Johansson for Match Point, her turn her was powerful in this Hitchcockian Allen film.

Director

• Will Win: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. I really hope this pays off when I finally get to see it.
• Should Win: Steven Spielberg for Munich. This was a lot more moving and intense than I had expected. The direction was first rate all the way.

Screenplay

• Will Win: Brokeback Mountain, the juggernaut roles on.
• Should Win: Good Night and Good Luck should take it for its tightly focused script, a trait I find admirable when done well.
• Side Note: Crash doesn't really deserve to be here, as excellent as the film was, the script relies too heavily on manipulation, taking away some of the believability, but as a focused microcosm it works, just not a best screenplay level.

Original Score

• Will Win: Brokeback Mountain, this is just a guess on my part.
• Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha. John Williams score was fantastic, especially with solos from Yo-Yo Ma and Itzhak Perlman.

Original Song

• Will Win: "A Love That Will Never Grow Old" from Brokeback Mountain. This is another guess.
• Should Win: "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" from The Producers. Can't go wrong with Mel Brooks!

Foreign Film

• Will Win: I have no clue here, as I have only seen one of the nominees. I loved it so I will say it will and should win. That movie is Kung Fu Hustle, Stephen Chow's manic masterpiece of kung fu and comedy, with a good dose of Tex Avery.
• Should Win: See above.

Television Series - Drama

• Will Win: Lost will take the top spot. The show may end up being a huge let down, but the ride has been nothing but compelling.
• Should Win: Newcomer Prison Break would be a good choice. It may be a little far fetched, but it has proven itself with a tightly plotted tale and colorful characters.

Television Series - Musical or Comedy

• Will Win: The strength of newcomer My Name is Earl is undeniable, it will take home the gold. I have to say that this show was a big surprise to me.
• Should Win: See above. Although, I would not mind a win for Everybody Hates Chris, the rare family comedy that is funny and well written with being sappy.
• Side Note: Desperate Housewives is not a comedy.

Mini-Series or Television Movie

• This is a category in which I have seen none of the nominees, so I will take a stab and say Lackawanna Blues.

Actor in a Leading Role - Drama Series

• Will Win: Hugh Laurie in House, M.D. This dry, acid tongued doc will take the gold.
• Should Win: I like Laurie for this, but I would much prefer Kiefer Sutherland in 24. Last season was phenomenal, possibly the best of its run, I cannot wait for the new season.

Actor in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy Series

• Will Win: Jason Lee in My Name is Earl, and well deserving at that.
• Should Win: I have a lot of favorites in here, atop that list would have to be the under recognized Zach Braff in Scrubs. After that would be Steve Carrell in The Office.

Actor In A Leading Role - Mini-Series Or Television Movie

• Haven't seen any of these, so I am going to take a guess with Ed Harris in Empire Falls.

Actress In A Leading Role - Drama Series

• Will Win: Glenn Close in The Shield. Not a fan of the show, but she has had good notices for her work and I think this will be her year.
• Should Win: Kyra Sedgewick in The Closer, she plays a very interesting character in this series, which makes the crime show feel a little bit fresher.

Actress In A Leading Role - Musical Or Comedy Series

• Good grief, this category could have used a bit more variety as 4 of the 5 slots went to Desperate Housewives. May I note, that show is not a comedy.
• Should Win/Will Win. Fill in your choice from Desperate Housewives, I will go with Eva Longoria.

Actress In A Leading Role - Mini-Series Or Television Movie

• Haven't seen any, so I will guess with Halle Berry in Their Eyes Were Watching God.

Actor In A Supporting Role - Series, Mini-Series Or Television Movie

• Never particularly cared for lumping regular series in with minis and TV movies in the supporting categories. These should be separated.
• Will Win: Naveen Andrews in Lost. His contributions to the show are invaluable, he is one of the best character creations of recent TV.
• Should Win: See above. Although, I would have liked Terry O'Quinn to have been nominated, also from Lost.

Actress In A Supporting Role - Series, Mini-Series Or Television Movie

• Will Win: Candice Bergen in Boston Legal. I'm not a fan of the show, but it always seems to get something at these awards shows.
• Should Win: Sandra Oh in Grey's Anatomy. Her dry character is a breath of fresh air amidst the sometimes too sappy nature of other characters.

That brings this whirlwind tour through my predictions to an end. I will say that I am usually way off in choosing the winners, but we shall see if history changes itself.

Enjoy the show!