May 8, 2007

Box Office Update 5/4-5/6: Spider-Man 3, Any Questions?

Well, it may be the worst reviewed of the trilogy, but the box office shows that moviegoers (myself included) were undeterred (though, my expectations had lessened somewhat). The Webhead shattered an assortment of reconds on its way to dominating the box office this weekend. The other nine films in the top ten did not have a chance, rather, they were left to their own devices to duke it out among themselves, and for the most part, it was a very close race.

Before we look at the scraps, we have to take a look at Spider-Man 3's numbers, as they are truly amazing. Now whether or not the movie deserves it is a different question all together. These numbers, and the opening weekend success, are testament to the great marketing from Sony, the success and acclaim of the first two entries, and the excitement that was bubbling throughout the populace to see Spidey swing into action, not to mention the promise of Venom. Now take a look at this, cribbed from Home Theater Forum's resident box office guru TerryRl:

  • Most admissions sold during opening weekend: 22.5 million
  • Biggest Opening Weekend Mark: $151 million
  • Biggest Opening Day Mark: $59.8 million
  • Biggest Single Day Mark: $59.8 million
  • Biggest Two-Day Gross: $111.2 million
  • Biggest Friday Gross: $59.8 million
  • Biggest Saturday Gross: $51.3 million
  • Biggest Sunday Gross: $39.9 million
  • First film to post more than $50 million on back-to-back days.
  • Fastest to $100 million:2 Days (tied with Pirates 2)
  • Biggest Gap between #1 and #2: $142.3 million
  • Widest Release: 4,252 Theaters
  • Highest Number of Prints: 10,000-plus
  • Best Per-Theater Average for a Wide Release (more than 1,000 theaters): $34,807
  • Biggest Single Day Mark Worldwide: $104.0 million
  • Biggest Opening Worldwide Mark: $375.0 million

Go ahead, take a look at those numbers again. They are quite breathtaking, aren't they? Before long, we could be talking about the first film to have a $200 million opening weekend! What makes these numbers seem even bigger to me is the fact that when I saw it on Saturday, it was in a near empty theater. Of course, this is just anecdotal evidence, but it is still amazing.

Now, whether or not the movie is going to have legs is going to be the big question. Next week's new entries. headlined by 28 Weeks Later, don't seem to offer much of a threat to Spidey's dominance. However, mediocre word of mouth could give it a steep dive of potentially more than 50%, which would still give it another $75 million. The next weekend is when the battle for supremacy starts, with the start of Shrek the Third and continues into the following week with Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. This could prove to be a year of huge openings and steep drop offs, depending on reviews, they will pull well early, but not show the legs they would need to step into rarified box office air.

There was one other new film entered as a bit of counter-programming this week, the Eric Bana/Drew Barrymore romantic/drama Lucky You. However, it ended up being a bit more of a poker movie than a romance, and, while good, failed to make much of an impression on the public. It will probably slip pretty quickly as the competition strengthens.

Places 3 through 10 were separated by less than $2 million. This pretty much means that it was anyones ballgame for where the place, it would not have taken much of an audience shift to have had them fall in a completely different order. Fracture led the way at number 3, moving up one place from last week's finish, with The Invisible not far behind. At the low end of the scale, Are We Done Yet? hung onto its tenth place finish, successfully fending off a charge from Vacancy.

As for Spidey's closes competition, Disturbia held strong, slipping one space and finishing in second with a $5.8 million tally. What may be most impressive by its finish is that it represented only a 35% drop from last week. Sure, the dollar amount may look small, but it is retaining its audience, and is proving to be a bigger hit than the studio had hoped for.

Two films dropped from the list this week: Vacancy (11), and The Condemned (12).

This Week

Last WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NSpider-Man 3$151,116,516$151,116,5161
21

Disturbia

$5,844,363$60,007,7794
34Fracture$3,696,060$26,728,8233
42The Invisible$3,261,374$12,482,7122
53Next$2,892,335$11,958,9762
6N

Lucky You

$2,710,445$2,710,4451
77Meet the Robinsons$2,619,654$91,925,0516
85Blades of Glory$2,409,106$111,738,3876
96Hot Fuzz$2,219,346$16,310,0983
1010Are We Done Yet?$1,744,619$46,150,9245

Box Office Predictions Recap
Hey! Guess what? I successfully predicted the number 1 movie! Of course, I only got one of the remaining 9 places right. My estimates were sort of in the ballpark, save my mucho overestimation of Lucky You. Anyway, I don't have much to say other than "Look out next week! I may try this again!"

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

Actual

PredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Spider-Man 3$151,116,516$135 million
62Lucky You$2,710,445$11 million
23Disturbia$5,844,363$5 million
44The Invisible$3,261,374$4 million
85

Blades of Glory

$2,409,106

$3.5 million

36Fracture$3,696,060$3 million
57Next$2,892,335$2.5 million
98Hot Fuzz$2,219,346$2 million
79Meet the Robinsons$2,619,654$1.5 million
1110Vacancy$1,546,033$1 million


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