June 19, 2007

Box Office Update 6/15-6/17: The Silver Surfer Rises

The Silver Surfer rose to the top of the box office charts this weekend, unseating last week's winner, Ocean's 13. The sequel to 2005's Fantastic Four succeeded in surpassing the original in both quality and in its opening weekend gross. For my money, the movie has been the most satisfying superhero flick of the year, standing above the fun, but insubstantial Ghost Rider, and definitely more satisfying than the bloated spectacle Spider-Man 3 was able to deliver.

There was only one other new release to make any sort of splash in the top ten, and it wasn't much of a splash at all, at least not as big as I read the studio was hoping for. That film is Nancy Drew, the new take on the sleuth of years gone by, and star vehicle for Emma Roberts. I did not see this, so I cannot say if it was any good or not, though the trailers did not excite me (though I am definitely not in the target audience). I do think it would have been a better fit 10-12 years ago when they were putting out Flipper, The Little Rascals, and Caspar type films.

Among the returning films, Knocked Up is still going strong, only dropping 28% from last week. This movie is a definite winner, Judd Apatow does a glorious job of combining rauchy comedy with feelings from the heart. Knocked Up seems to have struck a chord and found an audience. It is a special film that deserves all of the attention it gets. On the flip side, Hostel Part II took a nosedive in its second weekend out the gate, slipping 63%. I cannot say that surprises me, as that type of film has a somewhat narrow appeal, though I still feel a bit of a loss to understand why the Saw films have done so much better, aside from the release time.

This weekend also saw a sneak peek of the latest Pixar film, Ratatouille. It has its official wide release on June 29th, but in advance of that word of mouth is sought to help get the word out, so allow me to help by saying that it is a wonderful film that is easily better than last year's Cars, and is by far the best animated feature so far this year.

Two movies dropped off the top ten this week, last week's top ten surprise return Waitress (11), and Disturbia (19).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NFantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$58,051,684$58,051,6841
21

Ocean's Thirteen

$19,724,405$70,429,7412
33Knocked Up$14,069,880$90,016,6953
42Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$12,411,786$274,145,5104
54Surf's Up$9,254,793$34,625,4902
65

Shrek the Third

$9,003,044$297,245,1005
7NNancy Drew$6,832,318$6,832,3181
86Hostel Part II$3,026,131$14,208,4972
97Mr. Brooks$2,902,024$23,523,2433
108Spider-Man 3$2,505,151$330,021,1377

Box Office Predictions Recap
Wow, I did bad this week. Sure, I got four places correct and a couple of gross predictions spot on, but then there is that one major blemish. A blemish which may stand as my single worst guess in the history of my doing this. That singular gigantic black mark is saying that DOA would finish 8th with $6.5 million, when it actully opened with barely a quarter million, and placed a spectacular 18th. Well, I should have known, but I guess I didn't. Anyway, Fantastic Four opened up a bit below my expectations, but still did quite well for itself. Oh well, there's always next week.
Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$58,051,684$65 million
22Ocean's 13$19,724,405$23 million
33Knocked Up$14,069,880$18 million
74Nancy Drew$6,832,318$17 million
45

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

$12,411,786$15 million
56Surf's Up$9,254,793$12 million
67Shrek the Third$9,003,044$9 million
188DOA: Dead or Alive$260,713$6.5 million
89Hostel Part II$3,026,131$4.5 million
1010Spider-Man 3$2,505,151$2.5 million

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