July 3, 2007

Box Office Update 6/29-7/1: Ratatouille Holds Off John McClane

Pixar's latest release has arrived and landed at the top of the box office charts, as if there was any doubt. While it did take the top spot by a wide margin, it fell towards the lower end of the Pixar pantheon. Even though it did fall towards that low end, it will likely have strong legs and be yet another hit for the animation house. Ratatouille is an amazing film and one of the best to arrive so far this year, working on many levels for all age groups. See it, you will not be disappointed.

Behind Ratatouille, two other new releases, plus one more in its second week, make their top ten debuts. The first of those is the fourth entry in the Die Hard series, and the first in twelve years, Live Free or Die Hard. It successfully brought back the John McClane character, memorably played by Bruce Willis, in a movie that may have skimped on the blood and language in favor of a PG-13 rating, but still delivered the high octane goods. What helped the film is that there was a stronger emphasis on practical effects over CGI, lending the film a bit more weight. It is definitely a crowd pleaser, plus it had the strongest opening of any film in the series.

The other two new entries come in at the south end. Michael Moore's healthcare expose, Sicko, climbed to ninth in its second week of release. Its release expanded to 441 theaters, from one in its first, and shows, once again, that Moore films will sell tickets, moreso than any other documentarian (not that many get the shot at a wide release). Following it at tenth is Evening. I do not know much about this one, but it found an audience that assisted in bumping Shrek the Third from the top of the list.

Among the returning films, Knocked Up and At World's End both showed strong returns in hanging onto their audience. Knocked Up has been doing a fine job at retaining its audience. At the other end of the scale, Evan Almighty and Fantastic Four saw dips that were north of 50%.

All of these films are likely to take a dive next weekend with Transformers is all but assured the top spot.

Four movies dropped off the top ten this week: Shrek the Third (11), Surf's Up (12), Nancy Drew (13), and A Mighty Heart (14).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NRatatouille$47,027,395$47,027,3951
2NLive Free or Die Hard$33,369,559$48,398,1301
31Evan Almighty$15,143,945$60,679,5452
421408$10,662,804$40,442,0582
53Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$9,143,876$114,944,6843
65Knocked Up$7,302,325$122,291,7555
74Ocean's Thirteen$6,085,959$102,120,5374
86Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$4,960,368$295,703,0756
931Sicko$4,501,712$4,616,7862
10NEvening$3,501,971$3,501,9711

Box Office Predictions Recap
I actually did a pretty good job this week. Sure, none of my predictions were spot on, money-wise, I was actually kind of surprised at how close I was. Of course, I wished that Ratatouille had been closer to my guess, but you can't win them all. As far as my positioning, I came pretty close, with Surf's Up falling more than I would have thought, though I shouldn't be surprised considering Pixar's direct competition.
Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Ratatouille$47,027,395$55 million
22Live Free or Die Hard$33,369,559$35 million
33Evan Almighty$15,143,945$18 million
54Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$9,143,876$12 million
45

1408

$10,662,804$11 million
66Knocked Up$7,302,325$5 million
77Ocean's 13$6,085,959$5 million
128Surf's Up$2,446,757$3 million
89Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$4,960,368$3 million
1110Shrek the Third$2,673,877$2.5 million

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