Box Office Update 7/13-7/15: Harry Potter Heads to the Front of the Class

The weekend was ruled by the boy wizard. The fifth Potter film, Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix, easily topped the box office with its take of north of $77 million. It replaced the rock'em sock'em robots that sat at the top last week. It actually opened mid week, where it began by setting a Wednesday record taking in over $44 million. The series is going stronger than ever with its second shot at the summer. The movie itself was actually pretty good, easily better than The Goblet of Fire, at least in my estimation. I suspect that it will have a strong second week as well, possibly retaining the top spot.

Harry Potter was the only new film to enter the top ten. The other lone wide release, Captivity, failed to make much of a splash, finishing in twelfth place. The little bit of attention garnered from the poster controversy from earlier this year failed to help it at the box office. It even had its planned 1500 theater opening slashed to a little over 1000. Unfortunately, that cut took it out of my town completely, though they claim that it will arrive next week. Time will tell if I get to see if it is as bad as most seem to think it is.

As for the rest of the top ten, it was mostly strong from top to bottom with many of the films having strong holds. Transformers suffered the biggest blow, but even it held onto more than half of last week's take. Not bad considering the sizable dips that the big three thirds had in their second frames back in May. That is a good sign for the movie, it looks like it will have no problems cracking the $300 million mark, and with talk that the second and third outings have already been greenlit, the future is bright for Michael Bay and the newly formed film franchise.

The best hold among the returners was Michael Moore's healthcare expose Sicko, slipping less than 28%. Say what you will about him or his work, he is the only documentary filmmaker who can open a documentary on a wide scale. Not that many have gotten the chance at such a title, but the fact remains.

Among the films whose performance I am happy to see, Ratatouille did quite well, as did Knocked Up. Both of those are in the upper echelon of summer movies, and for the year in general. They both succeed exceedingly well for vastly different reasons, and vastly different ways. Hopefully their success will continue. So, if you haven't seen them, do so, and if you have seen them, go see them again! Another pleasant surprise is 1408, showing that it is possible to turn a Stephen King tale intoa successful big screen movie. It seem slike forever since a King tale has seen big screen success.

Next weekend has a pair of new films entering the competition. First is I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, the Adam Sandler/Kevin James comedy that is going to give Harry Potter a run for its money at the top of the list. The other is Hairspray, a musical remake featuring a creepy John Travolta in drag.

Only one movie dropped off the top ten this week: Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (11).

This Week	Last Week	Title	Wknd Gross	Overall	Week in release
1	N	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$77,108,414	$139,715,157	1
2	1	Transformers	$37,027,901	$224,009,583	2
3	2	Ratatouille	$18,012,196	$142,997,082	3
4	3	Live Free or Die Hard	$11,279,135	$103,322,580	3
5	4	License to Wed	$7,311,297	$30,379,749	2
6	6	1408	$4,934,516	$62,127,222	4
7	5	Evan Almighty	$4,895,055	$87,790,505	4
8	7	Knocked Up	$3,676,500	$138,217,270	7
9	9	Sicko	$2,604,139	$15,830,046	4
10	10	Ocean's Thirteen	$1,984,323	$112,506,702	6

Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, not too bad. I am actually surprised at how close I was able to get a good number of the box office gross predictions. Sure, I was a bit pessimistic in my guess for Transformers, I thought it might drop a bit more in week two, but it did well in its hols, especially compared to the holds of the earlier blockbusters of this summer. On the placing I was able to get the top 8 correctly, which is the closest I've been to perfect in a long time, not that I think the success will last. It's fun when it happens!
Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

Actual	Prediction	Title	Wknd Gross	Prediction
1	1	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$77,108,414	$74 million
2	2	Transformers	$37,027,901	$30 million
3	3	Ratatouille	$18,012,196	$18 million
4	4	Live Free or Die Hard	$11,279,135	$9 million
5	5	License to Wed	$7,311,297	$5 million
6	6	1408	$4,934,516	$4.5 million
7	7	Evan Almighty	$4,895,055	$4.25 million
8	8	Knocked Up	$3,676,500	$3.5 million
12	9	Captivity	$1,429,100	$3 million
11	10	Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer	$1,633,612	$2 million