July 10, 2007

Box Office Update 7/6-7/8: Transformers - They're More Than Meets the Eye

Transformers lit up the box office last week, from the $8 million it made at the Monday preview shows to its record setting Tuesday and Wednesday takes, right on through the weekend, there was only one movie everyone was talking about. The cartoon/toy adaptation gave Michael Bay the biggest opening of his career, and is well on its way to giving him the biggest hit of his career. Likewise, star Shia LeBeouf continues the role he's been on this year, after having the surprise hit in Disturbia, his star is definitely on the rise (not to mention his being cast in Indy IV). Transformers is going to challenge the big boys for the box office title this summer, and could help 2006 be the first year with four $300 million domestic earners.

One other new release debuted in the top ten this week, even though it pulled in less than expected. The Robin Williams vehicle, License to Wed, brought in less than $11 million for the weekend, finishing fourth. Maybe there is a correlation between quality and box office take, or maybe not. There are arguments either way. Now, I really wanted to like this one, but it just failed to deliver on the comedic potential of its premise.

Back up to the number two slot, Pixar's latest, Ratatouille, slipped a mere 33%. I was very happy to see it do so well, as it is one of the best films of the summer and the year. It is a step up from last year's hit Cars, and another feather in the cap for writer/director Brad Bird. It is a movie filled with magic, wonder, humor, and fantastic characters. If you have not seen it, do so. Following on its tale is the triumphant return of John McClane in Live Free or Die Hard, sure it could have used some blood and vulgarities, but it still delivers the goods in an adrenaline filled action ride.

In other top ten news, Stephen King's latest adaptation is doing better than I would have expected. The John Cusack starring 1408 is proving to have decent legs. Also holding its own, and doing very well considering its lack of big name stars, Knocked Up dipped a small 28%. That is at or near the top of the year's movies.

Next weekend has one major new release, and it is all but guaranteed the top spot. The fifth in the Potter series hits, Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix. It opens on Wednesday, and is joined by a lesser release, After Dark Film's Captivity, which gained a level of notoriety earlier this year when it had some unapproved posters hit the LA billboards.

Two movies dropped off the top ten this week: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (11) and Evening (14).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NTransformers$70,502,384$155,405,4121
21Ratatouille$29,014,293$109,531,5982
32Live Free or Die Hard$17,730,149$84,424,1232
4NLicense to Wed$10,422,258$17,838,0761
53Evan Almighty$8,719,135$78,706,7853
641408$7,088,979$53,738,3253
76Knocked Up$5,222,680$132,089,4256
85Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$4,239,993$123,881,5864
99Sicko$3,600,179$11,452,5603
107Ocean's Thirteen$3,525,366$109,145,3165


Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, not to bad. I got the top five places plus number sever. the rest were all off by a couple. I was actually surprised at how close I got it this weekend. Sure, I underestimated Transformers, but it was made up by my overestimation of License to Wed. See? Everything works out in the end. It will be interesting to see how well the robots hold in the face of a boy wizard next week.
Anyway, here is how I picked the field:
ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Transformers$70,502,384$62 million
22Ratatouille$29,014,293$28 million
33Live Free or Die Hard$17,730,149$19 million
44License to Wed$10,422,258$17 million
55

Evan Almighty

$8,719,135$7 million
86Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer$4,239,993$5 million
77Knocked Up$5,222,680$4 million
681408$7,088,979$4 million
109Ocean's 13$3,525,366$3 million
1110Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End$3,008,962$2.5 million

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