August 7, 2007

Box Office Update 8/3-8/5: The Bourne Ultimatum Explodes to the Top

This weekend saw the debut of the third Bourne film. It opened to good reviews, and the movie-going public responded giving it an opening near $70 million. That incredible opening adds to the record year 2007 is having; seven films have opened north of that $70 million mark, and The Bourne Ultimatum just narrowly missed being the eighth. Still, this opened substantially higher than the prior entry, which in turn was much higher than the initial outing. The Bourne Ultimatum is a fantastic action/thriller that delivers the goods with explosive action and an engrossing story. Damon has said this will be his last outing, but don't be surprised if they look to bring him back for the other Bourne novels.

Coming in right behind Ultimatum is The Simpsons Movie, which took a steeper-than-anticipated dive in its second weekend, slipping 65% to $25 million. I guess it should have been seen. I was thinking it prior to its opening, but following its monster opening it was automatic that expectations grew. Still, it had to be suspected that it would be front-loaded with the Simpsons die-hards heading to the theaters, leaving the following weekends for the lesser fans catching on to the very positive word of mouth. In any case, it is still a very successful release, and the film is hilarious.

Aside from The Bourne Ultimatum three other new releases made their top-ten debuts. First up is Underdog which came in third. The live-action adaptation had a decent, if unspectacular, opening. I saw the film, and it was actually all right. Kids will like it while adults will want for more. The other two failed to make much of an impact, Hot Rod and BRATZ finished ninth and tenth, respectively. I saw Hot Rod expecting not to like it, and I left very satisfied by the crazy random humor it supplied. The Andy Samberg-vehicle turned out to be very funny, and I recommend you all give it a shot. Then there is BRATZ pulling up the rear, and frankly, I have no interest in seeing it, unless someone wants to buy me a ticket?

As for the returning films, all, except for The Simpsons Movie, did fairly well. All of them slipping in the 45% range. None of them had extraordinary holds, but none fell off the table. It is heading into the dog days of summer and most of the big titles have now come and gone.

Next week sees Daddy Day Camp arrive on Wednesday, with Rush Hour 3, Stardust, and Skinwalkers arriving on Friday.

Four movies dropped off the top ten this week: Ratatouille (11), Live Free or Die Hard (13), I Know Who Killed Me (14), and Who's Your Caddy (15).
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NThe Bourne Ultimatum$69,283,690$69,283,6901
21The Simpsons Movie$25,110,873$128,060,5782
3NUnderdog$11,585,121$11,585,1211
42I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry$10,626,345$91,795,4503
54Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix$9,522,220$261,027,3973
63Hairspray$9,225,378$78,854,7984
75No Reservations$6,588,375$24,175,2032
86Transformers$6,021,472$296,379,3285
9NHot Rod$5,310,711$5,310,7111
10NBRATZ$4,208,455$4,208,4551

Box Office Predictions Recap
My placings were pretty good this week, nailing the top 6, with 3 others within 1 slot. Not too shabby. My biggest miscalculation in placement was Hot Rod which came in 9th place, not the 7th that I was expecting. Sadly, Ratatouille made its exit from the top ten after five weeks in the top list, still it is inching its way towards the $200 million barrier. As for my gross predictions, outside of my underestimation of the top two and overestimation of the third, I was pretty close to being spot on for the rest of the field. My worst guess had to have been for The Bourne Ultimatum, which I was off by nearly $20 million, much like my Simpsons guess was off last week.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:
ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11The Bourne Ultimatum$69,283,690$55 million
22The Simpsons Movie$25,110,873$32 million
33Underdog$11,585,121$18 million
44I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry$10,626,345$11 million
55

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

$9,522,220$10 million
66Hairspray$9,225,378$9 million
97Hot Rod$5,310,711$8 million
78No Reservations$6,588,375$6.5 million
89Transformers$6,021,472$6 million
1110Ratatouille$3,987,800$4 million

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