August 17, 2007

New Movies and Box Office Predictions: Superbad, The Invasion, The Last Legion

The dog days of summer are settling in. High School graduates are starting to get ready to begin college, other students are getting ready to resume their classes, and the movies are making their last grabs for the summer bucks. The true A-list summer flicks have already made their way through theaters, and the potential sleepers are filtering out. Weekend box office leaders are slipping out of the $50+ million range, back down to more modest numbers. Still, that does not mean that quality is going away, this weekend has a pair of films which could offer first rate cinematic experiences. At least I hope that is the case.

The Invasion. (2007, 93 minutes, PG-13, science fiction/thriller, trailer) Just what we need, another version of Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Despite it being another take on the science fiction mainstay, this looks pretty good. It looks like it could be a fresh take on the alien invasion tale. The trailer looks pretty exciting, hopefully the final product will match. Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig star for director Oliver Hirschbiegel. This will be Hirschbiegel's English language debut, following his excellent debut, Das Experiment, and his great take on Hitler's final days with the Oscar nominated Downfall.

The Last Legion. (2007, 110 minutes, PG-13, action, trailer) This one seemingly came out of nowhere, at least for me. It has had a very slow buildup. It wasn't that long ago that I saw the trailer, which first notified me that it was on the horizon. It is set after the fall of the Roman Empire with twelve year old Emperor Romulus Augustus, who travels with his men to Britannia. This leads into the start of the Arthurian legend and the sword in the stone. It actually looks like it will be good. Stars include the stunning Aishwarya Rai, Colin Firth, and Ben Kingsley. Doug Lefler (Dragonheart: A New Beginning) directs from a script by Jez and Tom Butterworth, who last penned the underrated Birthday Girl.

Superbad. (2007, 114 minutes, R, comedy, trailer) This is the movie I am most looking forward to this weekend. The trailer and clips I have seen so far have been hilarious. It strikes me as a cross between American Pie and Knocked Up, though to be fair, better than the former and not as good as the latter. Michael Cera and Jonah Hill star as a pair of high school seniors looking to score booze and babes before heading off to college. The story is not anywhere near an original idea, but the humor and characters are going to be what carries it off. It was co-written by Seth Rogen (who also co-stars) and Evan Goldberg, with Greg Mottola handling directing duties.

Away from Her. (2007, 110 minutes, PG-13, drama, trailer) Something tells me this already passed through my area once, but I cannot remember for sure. It is beginning a run at the second run theater this weekend. I have heard nothing but good things for actress Sarah Polley's directorial debut. It is the story of an aging couple dealing with the onset of Alzheimer's disease. Julie Christie, Gordon Pinsent, and Olympia Dukakis star.

Also opening this week, but not near me:
  • The 11th Hour
  • Death at a Funeral
  • Delirious
  • The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters
  • Love for Sale: Suely in the Sky
  • Manda Bala (Send a Bullet)

Box Office Predictions
Superbad is going to win the weekend, but it is not going to be nearly as big as other films have been recently. I think that Rush Hour 3 is the last film of the summer that will close on $50 million during its opening frame. It may have a shot at $30 million, but even that may be pushing it for the R rated comedy. As for the other new movies? The Invasion should do decent, likely in the low 20s, while The Last Legion will crack the top ten, but not be overly impressive.

Here is how I think the top ten field will play out:

RankTitleBox Office
1Superbad$28 million
2The Invasion$22 million
3Rush Hour 3$18 million
4The Bourne Ultimatum$16 million
5The Last Legion$11 million
6The Simpsons Movie$6.5 million
7Stardust$4.5 million
8Hairspray$4 million
9Underdog$3 million
10Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix$2 million

What are you seeing this weekend?


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