September 4, 2007

Box Office Update 8/31-9/2: Halloween Delivers Scares Two Months Early

This weekend saw a record fall as in the wake of the reimagining of a horror icon. That's right, Rob Zombie's take on the Halloween tale sailed to the top, easily breaking the earlier record held by Transporter 2. That film took in $20.1 million over the four day holiday weekend in 2005, while Halloween took in an estimated $26.5 million over the three day, and will easily cross $30 million for the four day span. I have to wonder if it would have had the same success if it had opened closer to the holiday for which it is named? It would seem to make more sense to open a Halloween film near Halloween, but this is nothing new. The two prior entries were both summer releases. Rob Zombie's film also seems to stand a good chance of becoming the highest grosser of the series, a record currently held by Halloween: H20 with $55 million.

Following the audience dividing reimagining there were two other films making their top ten debuts. First up is the number three finisher, Balls of Fury. The Dan Fogler comedy vehicle delivers some laughs, and works as a better spoof than films like Epic Movie and Date Movie. It finished the weekend with an estimated $11.3 million. Slipping down the list a bit you will find the Kevin Bacon revenge fantasy Death Sentence in eight place with an estimated $4.2 million. It delivered the bloody goods, but does not appear that it will be going anywhere at the box office. The James Wan directed flick will likely find its audience when it hits DVD.

The rest of the returning field all had strong holds for the holiday weekend, except for War which slipped more than 55%. Curious to note that one of the stars of War, Jason Statham, was the star of the previous Labor Day debut record holder, Transporter 2. At the other end of the spectrum is The Bourne Ultimatum continuing to display strong holds on the box office, slipping just 16% as its total gross will have crossed $200 million before the holiday is out. Also continuing to display a good hold at the box office is the musical Hairspray, hanging onto the top ten in its seventh week of release.

Next weekend will see the arrival of three new films entering wide and semi-wide release. One is the western 3:10 to Yuma which is receiving excellent early word, next is Shoot 'Em Up which promises some over-the-top bullet flying action, and the Will Arnett comedy The Brothers Solomon.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week: Hairspray (11), The Simpsons Movie (12), and The Invasion (19).

Due to the holiday, final figures were not available at the time of this writing, these figures are the three day estimates.
This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
1NHalloween$26,503,000$26,503,0001
21Superbad$12,200,000$89,035,0003
3NBalls of Fury$11,605,000$14,566,0001
42The Bourne Ultimatum$10,183,000$199,603,0005
53Rush Hour 3$8,560,000$120,416,0004
64Mr. Bean's Holiday$5,930,000$18,930,0002
76The Nanny Diaries$5,108,000$15,259,0002
8NDeath Sentence$4,180,000$4,180,0001
95WAR$3,610,000$16,449,0002
108Stardust$3,008,000$31,017,0004

Box Office Predictions Recap
A pretty poor week for predictions from yours truly. I was only able to get the top film placed correctly. Sure, I was close on a bunch of the others, but it is not the same. None of my predictions were terribly close this week. I even underestimated the take of Halloween, which easily took over the Labor Day record came in over $5 million higher than I was expecting. However, I bet that it will drop pretty quickly over the next couple of weeks.

Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
11Halloween$26,503,000$21 million
32Balls of Fury$11,605,000$14 million
23Superbad$12,200,000$10 million
84Death Sentence$4,180,000$8.5 million
45

The Bourne Ultimatum

$10,183,000$8 million
56Rush Hour 3$8,560,000$6 million
67Mr. Bean's Holiday$5,930,000$4.5 million
98War$3,610,000$4 million
79The Nanny Diaries$5,108,000$3.5 million
1210The Simpsons Movie$2,800,000$2.5 million

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