March 16, 2008

Fantasy Baseball 2008: Year Three, the Plot Thickens

It's that time of year again. What time? Fantasy baseball time, of course. This will be my third go-around as fantasy baseball GM, and it is already shaping up to be the toughest one yet. Why, you ask? Because there are six more teams this time, and you know what that means. Six more players per round over a twenty round draft. That pretty effectively thins the talent pool and makes my job picking a team a little more difficult.

My first year, 2006, was little more than an exercise in futility. After a few weeks I began to forget to manage my team, before long the idea of checking who was playing was a distant memory. Subsequently, my non-managed team ran right into the ground. I don't even know where I ended up. 2007 proved to be a different story. I went to the draft to play. I came out with a decent team that I successfully managed for the entire and led my team (with a few changes along the way) to a second place finish. Well, I actually finished third, but there are ongoing investigations into improprieties with the first place team that are as yet unresolved.

This year there was a distinct similarity to last year. The carryover is my utter and complete lack of genuine research. I keep myself pretty busy with writing for this site, which kept me away from all of those 2007 stats and 2008 projections, not to mention pre-ranking and having some sort of position guide/cheat sheet to make sure I get all of the players I need. Sure, I had done a little checking, but not nearly enough to be worthwhile.

So, I entered the draft room with just a little anxiety. Then I saw my place in the draft, fourteenth out of fourteen. Well, there go my dreams of getting A-Rod, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana, or any of the other first tier names that I was interested in. Resigned to that fact, I took a look down the list of ESPN's standard pre-rankings and began to put together a little bit of a strategy, a strategy that did not really work out in the end.

Before going any further, let's take a look at my drafted team, with comparisons to my first two teams:

Position2008 Team2007 Team2006 Team
CatcherKenji Johjima (Sea)Paul LoDuca (NYM)Jason Varitek (Bos)
1st BasePrince Fielder (Mil)Carlos Delgado (NYM)Lance Berkman (Hou)
2nd BaseAaron Hill (Tor)Dan Uggla (Fla)Tadahito Iguchi (CWS)
3rd BaseAramis Ramirez (ChC)Troy Glaus (Tor)David Wright (NYM)
ShortstopJhonny Peralta (Cle)Jose Reyes (NYM)Derek Jeter (NYY)
OutfieldCarlos Beltran (NYM)Carlos Beltran (NYM)Andrue Jones (Atl)
OutfieldHunter Pence (Hou)Jermaine Dye (CWS)Johnny Damon (NYY)
OutfieldHideki Matsui (NYY)Nick Swisher (Oak)Cliff Floyd (NYM)
UtilityLuis Castillo (NYM)Ramon Hernandez (Bal)Jim Edmonds (StL)
UtilityConor Jackson (Ari)Pat Burrell (Phi)Preston Wilson (Hou)
BenchRick Ankiel (StL)Adrian Gonzalez (SD)Melvin Mora (Bal)
BenchStephen Drew (Ari)JD Drew (Bos)Bobby Crosby (Oak)
BenchJosh Fields (CWS)Omar Vizquel (SF)Placido Polanco (Det)
BenchRyan Church (NYM)Luis Castillo (Min)Paul LoDuca (NYM)
BenchNick Johnson (Was)
Starting PitcherJustin Verlander (Det)Roy Oswalt (Hou)Dontrelle Willis (Fla)
Starting PitcherJohn Lackey (LAA)Aaron Harang (Cin)Tim Wakefield (Bos)
Starting PitcherRoger Clemens (Hou)
Relief PitcherTodd Jones (Det)Billy Wagner (NYM)Trevor Hoffman(SD)
Relief PitcherBrian Wilson (SF)Takashi Saito (LAD)Aaron Heilman (NYM)
PitcherJohn Maine (NYM)CC Sabathia (Cle)Ben Sheets (Mil)
PitcherAndy Pettite (NYY)Andy Pettite (NYY)Noah Lowry (SF)
PitcherKevin Millwood (Tex)
PitcherMatt Cain (SF)
PitcherJoe Borowski (Fla)

First impressions?

I don't think I did all that bad, although I feel I may be a bit lacking in the starting pitching department. After all, eight top flight pitchers were chosen before I got to my third pick (my first two were position players. I think Verlander and Lackey will have good years, Pettite is generally solid, and I hope that Maine can build on his 15 wins from last year.

I have two carryovers from last year, Beltran and Pettite, while there is one returning from my 2006 team in Luis Castillo, although this time as a backup rather than a starter. I should also note that Hunter Pence was on my team at the end of last season and was impressive, I hope to see him continue his success.

Among my more questionable picks is Rick Ankiel, the pitcher turned outfielder who was also in the midst of the steroid scandal. He put up decent numbers in his limited exposure as an outfielder for the Cardinals. Playing everyday will either increase his production or expose him as a flash in the pan, I am banking on an increase. Then there is Ryan Church, who should be solid, but is not exactly star material. What can I say? He was my 20th round pick, I needed an outfielder, and the pickers were slim.

Will this team be able to hold up? Time will tell, although I am sure a few transactions will be in the offing.

For the curious, here are how my first few rounds went: 1. Prince Fielder, 2. Carlos Beltran, 3. Aramis Ramirez, 4. Justin Verlander, 5. John Lackey, 6. Hunter Pence.

For the even curioser (I know that isn't a word), here is the first round: 1. Alex Rodriguez, 2. Johan Santana (surprisingly early), 3. Hanley Ramirez, 4. Jimmy Rollins, 5. David Wright, 6. Jose Reyes, 7. Chase Utley, 8. Albert Pujols, 9. Jake Peavey, 10. Miguel Cabrera, 11. Matt Holliday, 12. Ryan Howard, 13. Carl Crawford, 14. Prince Fielder.

And so it goes, the season is rapidly approaching and I cannot wait to see how my team does, meaning the Mets. They made the biggest trade of the off-season and seem poised to run straight for the top. I worry, however, about their depth, they have none and if they have to deal with any number of injuries, the season could get hairy in a hurry. I mean we already lost Moises Alou until May....

1 comments:

bfadds said...

First, I don't know how the hell you didn't win the league last year... I had to pick my jaw up off the floor when I saw that '07 pitching staff... nasty. For this year though... my first thoughts were that your OF may be frustrating. I've had Beltran the past two years in a keeper league and he can be really annoying with the minor injuries keeping him out of the line-up. However, that said, I love the back-ups you got for them. Fields, Ankiel, and Church should all do really well this year (Ankiel especially if he gets to hit in front of Pujols for extended periods of time). My favorite sleeper for your team, though, is Aaron Hill. I sort of get a young Michael Young vibe from him. He showed last year that he can drive the ball all over the place... I think that this may be the year that you see his average meet up with his ability. Plus at 2B, you'll get a lot of R & H in a week position.

Anyway, that's enough fantasy ranting for now, haha. If you want to see a few more guys who I think are over/under-rated, you can check out Life of Brian. Great stuff... keep it up.

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