August 5, 2008

Box Office Recap 8/1-8/3: The Dark Knight Holds Off The Mummy Down

The top spot for this weekend was a hotly contested affair that came right down to the wire. The union of a highly promoted film doing well but under performing and a movie that is turning into a behemoth that no one expected climb so high. The two films involved? The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, which has received generally poor reviews and did not going to reach the pre-release expectations. The other is The Dark Knight, a movie whose box office take is blowing away all expectations to the points that people are saying it could reach Titanic's $600 million take, which isn't going to happen, but $500 million is not out of the question.

The Dark Knight is an absolute phenomenon. It also is a good example of what glowing reviews can do to affect box office potential. The pre-release hype surrounding the film guaranteed a strong open, but the across the board raves that the early reviews brought pushed its box office expectations into the stratosphere. These elements helped fuel that perfect storm that has pushed the movie's box office to the brink of $400 million after just three weekends in release. Watching this is something special, enjoy it while you can.

The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor is doing well, but not living up to expectations. This sort of makes you wonder what could have happened had the film been good. Oh, wait, that already happened with The Dark Knight. Anyway, I would be lying if I said I did not find the movie entertaining, but it could have been so much better. Well, it put up a good fight, but it could not quite unseat the now three time reigning weekend champ.

There was one other film entering wide release this weekend. Kevin Costner's Swing Vote made its way out to theaters around the country where it was greeted with a whimper. The movie is actually pretty good, but does not look like it will be spending much time at the cineplex. It is a heartwarming story that urges you to be a participant and not just a viewer. It is also pretty funny.

Among the returning films, The X-Files: I Want to Believe plummeted nearly 70% from its opening weekend, pretty much sealing its fate with regards to future sequels. Perhaps if it had been a good movie it would have had a different outcome. At the other end of the spectrum Mamma Mia! and Wall*E both had very small drops this week, well under 30% each.

Next week will see new competition from the latest Judd Apatow camp production Pineapple Express, featuring Seth Rogen and James Franco. Your local multiplex will also play host to Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2.

Two movies dropped off the top ten this week: Wanted (12) and Hellboy II: The Golden Army (11).

This WeekLast WeekTitleWknd GrossOverallWeek in release
11The Dark Knight$42,664,219$393,751,0653
2NThe Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor$40,457,770$40,457,7701
32Step Brothers$16,506,526$63,172,0262
43Mamma Mia!$12,615,515$87,470,1253
55Journey to the Center of the Earth$6,662,406$72,927,3144
6NSwing Vote$6,230,669$6,230,6691
76Hancock$5,087,756$215,883,2225
87Wall*E$4,603,179$204,078,0766
94The X-Files: I Want to Believe$3,385,878$17,021,3732
109Space Chimps$2,720,177$21,971,0163



Box Office Predictions Recap
Well, who would have guessed that The Dark Knight would be able to hold off an oncoming mummy horde? As it turns out, the battle was closer than I was expecting, hence my inability to properly predict the top film. Of course, if you look through the rest of my predictions, I did not have a particularly good weekend. I can take a little solace in the fact that I got a couple right on both sides of the board, and then there is always next weekend.

Here is how the field matched up:

ActualPredictionTitleWknd GrossPrediction
21The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor$40,457,770$52 million
12The Dark Knight$42,664,219$40 million
33Step Brothers$16,506,526$17 million
64Swing Vote$6,230,669$12 million
45

Mamma Mia!

$12,615,515$9 million
56Journey to the Center of the Earth$6,662,406$5 million
77Hancock$5,087,756$4.5 million
98The X-Files: I Want to Believe$3,385,878$4 million
89Wall*E$4,603,179$3.5 million

11

10Hellboy II: The Golden Army$2,488,525$2.5 million


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